Volodymyr Zelenskyis the suggestion that Ukraine could temporarily cede territory to Russia in exchange for NATO membership, this would mark a “major concession” to Vladimir Putinsaid the former British ambassador to Russia.
In a significant development on the path to a possible ceasefire after 33 months of conflict, Ukrainian President shown for the first time that kyiv could accept Russian control over part of its territory in order to end the “hot phase of the war”.
With Moscow appears to be accelerating its conquest of territories in eastern Ukraine Before Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, Mr Zelensky told Sky News that peace could be restored if the territory he controls was taken “under the umbrella of NATO”, allowing him to negotiate the return of the remainder later “diplomatically”. “.
Hailing Mr Zelensky as “playing a very sophisticated game”, Sir Tony Brenton – who was ambassador to Russia between 2004 and 2008 – told the broadcaster: “He knows Trump is about to come after him and to Russia. He is already making arrangements to have something to offer Trump.
“What he is suggesting, in many ways, takes us much closer to the obvious target area, which is a freeze in fighting where the lines are now, then a possible negotiation over who gets to keep what part of the territory, and then security guarantees. for Ukraine during this ceasefire.
Warning that Ukraine’s membership in NATO “is frankly going to be very, very difficult”, he said Mr Zelensky’s statement that he is prepared to see a ceasefire and then negotiate the Return of Russian-occupied territories to Ukraine in the longer term would be seen by Mr. Putin as a concession.
“It’s actually quite a big concession, because the long term could be very long,” he said, adding: “(Putin) will say to himself: ‘ah, they feel weak, I can push for learn more'”. . It is a danger if we go down this path.
The Russian president is currently “keeping his cards very close to his chest” over his vision of how to end the conflict, which he believes he is winning, Sir Tony said. Moscow’s troops are making steady progress in eastern Ukraine, but at the cost of suffer potentially record losses.
Zelensky suggested parts of Ukraine under his control should be taken “under NATO umbrella” (Sky News)
Agreeing this view, James Nixey, of the Chatham House think tank, warned that any part of Ukraine being part of NATO would be unacceptable to Mr Putin.
“After all, it’s a horror for him. Putin doesn’t want a break anyway – he believes he is on the brink of a historic and strategic victory, nicely sealed by Donald Trump,” Mr Nixey said. The Independent.
But if such a deal were to be reached, kyiv and its allies could present it as a victory in securing a “free and democratic Ukraine linked to the West”, Sir Tony said.
In other remarks to Sky News, the UK’s former representative to NATO, Sir Adam Thomson, said Mr Zelensky appeared to be preparing the domestic public for compromise, while “taking measures of opening” in a probably prolonged negotiation with Mr. Trump on the line to adopt. with the Kremlin.
“It brings Ukraine to a much more realistic position. “It’s not necessarily achievable, but it’s more realistic,” Sir Adam said, adding that around three-quarters of NATO members believe kyiv’s membership “would be the least bad outcome, in the sense in which it would be the least expensive and the most stable.
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin spoke behind closed doors without advisors in Helsinki in July 2018 (AFP via Getty Images)
If such a deal were to be reached, it would require NATO troops. including from Great Britain – to defend Ukraine’s borders, including its northern border with Belarus, Mr. Nixey said, adding: “It is questionable whether NATO is fully prepared for this eventuality. »
Throughout the conflict, Mr. Zelensky never declared that he would cede any occupied Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, occupied by Russia in February 2014. In September 2022, Russia unilaterally declared its annexation of four Ukrainian regions – Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia – despite not controlling all these territories.
Yet war analysts say Russia has gained ground in recent weeks on Ukraine’s eastern front at the fastest pace since the war’s early days, as Moscow and kyiv eagerly await the return of Mr. Trump in January. The US president-elect said he could end the war “in a day”.
Historian Mark Galeotti, author of Forged in War: A Military History of Russiasaid Mr. Zelensky’s comments likely reflect in part “the unfolding political and military realities, as the Russians continue to advance and the shadow of Donald Trump looms over everything.”
“But I think this may also be an attempt by Zelensky to bluff the West,” Dr Galeotti said. The Independent. “In reality, it would be very difficult to get all 32 NATO members to agree to rapid membership, but in reality he is asking: ‘if not the security guarantee of Article 5, what could- can we offer anything else?’ »
Mr. Zelensky’s former foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said earlier this week that it was inconceivable that he could sign a deal ceding territory to him. Policy: “The Russians keep Donbass, they keep Crimea, no NATO membership. Can Zelensky sign? He cannot because of the Constitution. And because it will be the political end of Zelensky.”
Last month, Mr. Zelensky revealed his “victory plan”which calls for Ukraine’s unconditional membership in NATO, refusal to exchange Ukrainian territories currently occupied by Russian forces, and continuation of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.
