Why Voters 50 and Over Could Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

In a heated room presidential racethere is an age bracket – voters aged 50 and over – who can help decide the ultimate winner.

“We expect voters over 50 to make up the majority of the electorate, and we believe that ultimately they will determine the outcome of the election, particularly in parliamentary elections. Swing States,” said John Hishta, senior vice president of campaigns at AARP, an interest group focused on issues related to people 50 and older.

Around 90% of those aged 50 and over say they are extremely motivated to vote, AARP foundcompared to 75% of voters under 50.

Whether individuals over 50 choose the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, or the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, depends largely on which they perceive to be best for their wallets.

“This all relates to day-to-day portfolio issues and who is best suited to manage these issues going forward,” Hishta said.

Inflation is a major concern, as is Social Security because of the high cost of living, he said.

Prescription drug prices, which tend to take up a larger share of household budgets as people age, are also a priority. Caregiving is another area this cohort is paying attention to, since a significant portion of people ages 50 and older fill these roles, he said.

Certainly, voters aged 50 and over are not the same. Those 50 to 64 tend to be Republican, while those 65 and older are now split 50/50, Hishta said.

As with all voters, there is a gender split. Trump has a “pretty substantial lead” among men over 50, Hishta said, while women 50 and older lean toward Harris.

Republican women ages 50 and older cite immigration and inflation as their top issues. KFF investigation from the beginning of this year found. For older Democratic women, threats to democracy top the list.

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Kathy Shanks, 74, of Pinellas County, Fla., cites inflation, immigration and overseas spending of taxpayer dollars as the main issues that worry her. She voted early, voting for Trump for president for the third time.

In 2020, President Joe Biden won Pinellas Countywhile Trump won Florida overall. Therefore, this west coast county, which was recently hit by Hurricane Milton, will be one of the counties that will monitor these elections.

Although Shanks receives Social Security, she still works as a security guard, saying “there’s no way” she can get by on her own with her monthly retirement checks.

Even though the pace of inflation has declined from post-pandemic highs, Shanks said his cost of living is still high and his auto insurance rates have recently increased significantly.

Experts are also closely watching battleground states where support for Republican and Democratic candidates is particularly tight.

Results in eight states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — could decide who wins the White House.

Bill Astle, 87, of Oro Valley, Ariz., said he voted early for Harris.

Astle, who was previously a faculty member at the Colorado School of Mines, a state university, relies on a pension for his income. Although he does not receive Social Security retirement benefits, he worries about the future of the program on behalf of all those who rely on it for income.

Most Americans say Social Security is “one of the most important” or “very important” issues in how they will vote in this election, a CNBC Poll find. The program faces imminent threats trust fund exhaustion dates as early as 2033, which could require a reduction in benefits unless lawmakers act sooner.

Astle lives a little more than 60 miles from the Mexican border and said talk of higher crime in the area due to immigration is exaggerated. “It’s one of the safest places in the country,” he said.

Although Shanks and Astle voted, they lamented the lack of communication with voters with opposing political views.

“Our social circle seems to have evolved, and some might say transformed, largely made up of people who think like us,” Astle said of his and his wife’s social group.

But local news shows “it’s really a purple situation,” or a mix of blue Democrats and red Republicans, he said.

Likewise, Shanks said she would like to hear more from Democratic voters about why they support Harris.

“People who vote blue won’t tell me why,” Shanks said.