The results of the 2024 election are clear: The Asian American electorate has shifted further to the right. This trend portends a new future for this voting bloc, which bodes well for the Republican Party. And this has been years in the making.
Asian Americans have returned Kamala Harriswho received 54 percent of the vote, according to Edison Research exit polls conducted with a consortium of news organizations. Yet the 39% who supported Donald Trump — despite Harris’s South Asian background and her efforts to appeal to voters of color — reflects the Democratic Party’s declining hold on Asian American voters. In 2020, Joe Biden received 61% of the Asian American vote, compared to Trump’s 34%. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton received 65% to Trump’s 27%. Since 2016, Trump has managed to attract more Asian American voters to his side. This statistical trend indicates that the nine-year-old phenomenon of Trumpism is on the rise. But something bigger and with a longer history is also happening.
To be sure, 2024 polls suggest that, like other demographic groups, Asian Americans were primarily concerned about the economy. And for some, wallet issues like inflation, gas prices and other daily expenses have taken priority over Trump scandals, JD Vance gaffes and long-standing Republican Party differences. with Asian American voters on issues such as education and health care. According to AAPI dataa research project based at UC Berkeley, Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders make up 3 to 12 percent of the electorate in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania . Voters cited the economy as their top issue in this election. Battlefield States; Trump won them all.
Additionally, Republican activists and conservative media outlets have argued that undocumented immigrants threaten security and eat up citizen resources, explaining why Americans, including middle- and working-class Asian Americans, live paycheck to paycheck. (Studies show that immigrants commit fewer crimes (that native-born Americans and undocumented immigrants pay billions in taxes each year.) Some Asian immigrants and refugees in particular feel they have settled in the United States the “correct” way. Conservative messages help convince them that undocumented individuals undermine the dignity of the legal paths they took to citizenship.
The culture wars are also worth considering. For religious people of color, including Latino Christians, Filipino and Vietnamese Catholics, and Chinese and Korean evangelicals, Democrats’ positions on abortion and gender identity are contrary to the views of their churches. Finally, Democrats have lost credibility as defenders of the working class – a criticism that has been coming from the left ever since. Bernie Sanders popularized democratic socialism. Pundits and strategists have recognized that the Democratic Party is now seen as the party of highly educated elites, A-list celebrities and wealthy cosmopolitans culturally out of step with ordinary Americans.
For Asian immigrants who came here to pursue the American dream, the Republican Party’s unapologetic nationalism à la “America First” (or “Make America Great Again”) has appealed to families who embrace the traditionalism of a real or imagined past. This traditionalism can also play on colorism, racism or a tacit approval of white supremacy within segments of the Asian American Pacific Islander community.
Beyond national politics, in blue California this week, the left was shocked to see voters reject the proposals of raise the minimum wage and expand access to rent control. Asian Americans in the state have been particularly vocal about support proposition 36which would result in more severe criminal penalties. It happened. And in the Democratic stronghold of San Franciscothe best contenders for battle for mayor were solid moderates. Daniel Lurie won, but he and incumbent London Breed campaigned among Asian Americans, especially large numbers of people. Chinese-American communityas pro-business and tough on crime and moved away from “woke” politics, which has largely harmed progressives. Similar trends occurred in California in general and in new York.
Although it appears that liberalism has stopped resonating with Asian American voters the way it once did, this is not a one-time change. In 1992 and 1996, among the first polls in which Asian American voters were a large enough group to survey, they supported the Republican presidential candidate. Al Gore broke this trend in 2000.
Although GOP enthusiasm has waned, it has not disappeared. On the contrary, it remained stable and silent – until 2008. The emergence of a new Asian American right arguably began with the successful mobilization of Chinese evangelicals support Proposition 8 in California for ban same-sex marriage — a right now protected at the federal level by Obergefell v. Hodges and in the state by the adoption this year of Prop 3 (a victory for the left, on a social issue). This energy continued with the multiple affirmative action court cases in the 2010s and 2020s. Since then, Asian American conservatism has continued to growincluding among those who do not call themselves Republicans.
It is too early to determine whether 2024 signals a full or lasting political realignment. What is clear, however, is that the The Republican Party expands its base to include more Latino men, younger white men, people without college degrees, and eligible voters who rarely vote. If trends continue as they have since 2016, Asian Americans could join this coalition. Much depends on how long Trump and the Republican Party can maintain this momentum.
James Zarsadiaz is an associate professor of history at the University of San Francisco and is the author of “Resisting Change in Suburbia.” He is working on a book about Asian American conservatism since the Cold War.
