Donald Trump’s supporters believed that voter fraud could determine the outcome of the election — until he won.
As Election Day approaches, nearly 9 in 10 Trump voters said fraud was a serious problem. Subsequently, only a little more than a third said so.
Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris has also muddled public opinion on a range of other issues. For example, her supporters were also more likely to feel good about the economy after the election – while Harris’ supporters took a more negative view.
These are the results of a new POLITICO|Morning Consult poll, designed to measure changes in public opinion before and after the election. The results are largely consistent with recent data on consumer confidence. and comments from Republican leaders.
Our new poll showed that voters’ perceptions on issues like election security and the economy changed significantly after the election, with stark differences depending on which choice they voted for. The poll also reveals mixed expectations for a second Trump term.
The first survey (top lines, crosstabs) took place from October 30 to November 1, the week preceding the election, while the second (top lines, crosstabs) was on the ground from November 20 to 22, two weeks after Trump’s victory. Both surveys covered more than 4,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Here are some of the key lessons we learned from the results.
Trump supporters less worried about election fraud after victory
In a poll days before the election, Trump supporters expressed little confidence in the election outcome, with a whopping 87 percent agreeing substantially or somewhat with the assertion that voter fraud was a ” serious problem” that could determine the outcome of the election. Among Harris supporters, about half expressed similar concerns.
This partisan divide disappeared after Election Day.
After the election, Trump and Harris supporters were less likely to think fraud affected the outcome. This shift was particularly pronounced among Trump supporters, with only 36% agreeing after his victory that fraud was a serious problem.
It is worth noting that confidence in the results of the 2024 election has not substantially changed voters’ beliefs and policy preferences regarding mail-in voting or voter ID laws. Republicans had pushed their voters to adopt postal voting this fall – despite mixed messages from Trump himself — but Harris supporters were even more likely to favor allowing expanded mail-in voting.
Before and after the election, just under half of Trump supporters said voters should be allowed to vote by mail regardless of whether they can get to the polls on Election Day. Among Harris supporters, that figure was about 85 percent.
Meanwhile, Trump and other Republicans have sounded the alarm over the lack of voter ID laws in some states, but the safe conduct of the 2024 elections, with no serious signs of fraud in any State, has changed voters’ perceptions on the issue. Nearly 80% of Trump supporters and half of Harris supporters continue to believe that all voters should be required to show ID to vote.
Voters’ perceptions of the economy begin to shift along partisan lines
The economy was the top issue for most voters heading into Election Day, with 81 percent of voters in the POLITICO|Morning Consult pre-election poll identifying it as “very important” in determining their vote choice. Trump voters placed a bit more emphasis on the economy than Harris voters, but it was important regardless of party.
Which wasn’t the same for Trump and Harris supporters: what they thought about the economy pre-election — and what they think now.
A week before the election, only 8% of self-identified Trump voters described the economy as on “the right track,” according to the poll. But after Trump’s victory, that figure rose to 28 percent — still a minority, but a substantial shift in the space of just a few weeks, when economic conditions had not changed dramatically.
On the other hand, Harris supporters were much less likely to say the economy was on track after the election, with just 46% saying so, compared to 59% the week before Election Day .
Voters are also divided along partisan lines on what Trump should do — but they agree on what they think he will do.
Not surprisingly, voters are divided on the direction the Trump administration will take: 64% of those who voted for the president-elect said they were “very optimistic” about his presidency, while 65% of those who voted for Harris declared themselves “very pessimistic”.
But on some issues, voters’ perceptions of what Trump will do and what they think about him are more nuanced. Take the example of possible pardons granted to defendants involved in the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. long-standing Trump campaign promise.
A majority of voters oppose the idea, although there are significant partisan divisions. In the post-election poll, Trump voters were somewhat divided, with 53 percent favoring pardons while 30 percent opposed them. (Meanwhile, 18 percent were unsure).
Harris voters were overwhelmingly opposed to the idea of pardoning the Jan. 6 defendants, with 74 percent of them strongly opposing it.
But when it comes to whether Trump is likely to grant these pardons, the gaps are a bit smaller: Voters think he will. Sixty percent of Trump voters thought it was very or somewhat likely that the president-elect would grant pardon or clemency, compared to 81 percent of Harris voters.
The issue of the treatment of the Jan. 6 defendants was emblematic of broader divisions over the country’s future. Two-thirds of Harris voters said after the election that they were somewhat or very pessimistic about democracy in the United States, while three-quarters of Trump voters were optimistic.
Trump supporters were also much more optimistic than Harris supporters across a range of policy areas, with the biggest differences over national security (75 percent of Trump voters were optimistic compared to 30 percent of Harris voters) and public health (73 percent of voters). (Trump voters are optimistic compared to 33% of Harris voters).
The gap was slightly narrower in how Trump and Harris voters thought the next Republican presidency would impact their own financial situations. Seventy percent of Trump voters were optimistic on that front, as were 42 percent of Harris voters.
