Trump’s victory in the US election was seen as a blow to global climate action and cast a pall over next week’s UN COP29 summit, but leaders of the historic climate deal concluded in Paris said they believed the momentum towards decarbonization would not be halted.
The Trump campaign had announced that the new president would again withdraw from the Paris Agreement, as he did during his first term.
The world’s most important climate negotiations were already the subject of waning attention from political and business leaders, with many abandoning the event being held in the petro-state of Azerbaijan, the day before the American elections.
EU President Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron are among those not expected to be in Baku, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer are still expected to attend.
The heads of Bank of America, BlackRock, Standard Chartered and Deutsche Bank will also be absent, as well as the leader of the financial sector climate alliance, Mark Carney, who has played an important role since being named special envoy of the UN in 2020. A senior US energy official said he was deterred by Azerbaijan’s proximity to Russia.
A climate negotiator from a G20 country said: “Should we all go to the COP now? It actually becomes more difficult. (Trump) has been clear on his position on climate change. This makes things difficult. He is not a strong supporter of globalization or multilateralism. He is truly for America first.
At this year’s COP29, countries are expected to agree on a new climate finance target, aimed at helping developing countries create green energy systems and adapt to global warming. The United States, as the richest country in the world, was seen as essential to this goal.
Avinash Persaud, climate advisor to the Inter-American Development Bank, said “a lot depends on the next US Treasury secretary.”
“The world will need to come together, and the COP is a good place for that, to think about how we move forward with or without the world’s largest consumer and producer of fossil fuels, because we don’t have to other choice. The physical systems of the planet do not correspond to the American electoral cycle.
Eamon Ryan, the Irish climate minister who will co-lead adaptation negotiations at COP29, said Trump’s victory made it even “more important” to agree a new financial target and focus on “fundamental reform of the financial system to combine climate and development”. .
“It doesn’t change what we need to do in Baku, it probably makes things more difficult, but it doesn’t change the strategic reason why we need to act.”
He said it was in every country’s interest to protect its people from climate change, and many had an economic and geopolitical imperative to transform their economies and ensure they were not dependent on fuels. imported fossils.
During his campaign, Donald Trump voiced support for the fossil fuel industry, among his top donors, and also pledged to repeal what he called the “socialist” Tax Reduction Act. ‘inflation.
The legislation generated about $450 billion in private investment in the U.S. energy sector, according to the Clean Investment Monitor. Consultancy BloombergNEF estimates that a repeal of the IRA will lead to a 17 percent drop in new renewable capacity additions between 2025 and 2035, with offshore wind falling by up to 45 percent.
But an estimated three-quarters of all manufacturing projects announced in the first year of the law’s passage benefited Republican districts, according to an FT analysis, and 18 Republicans in the House of Representatives spoke out in a recent letter against “premature repeal of energy tax credits.” support new IRA investments.
Rajani Ranjan Rashmi, a former climate negotiator for India, said Trump’s approach to the nation’s energy transition was “more important” than his position on the Paris agreement.
The alliance with Tesla founder Elon Musk could also mean that “Trump might not totally ban” the IRA, he noted. “While he is likely to weaponize trade, it will be interesting to see how he responds to the threat of carbon tariffs that the Europeans are threatening. Overall, the signals seem mixed.
Christiana Figueres, who led the Paris agreement as UN climate chief, said she did not believe ongoing changes to decarbonize the global economy would stop.
“Clean energy technologies will continue to displace fossil fuels, not only because they are healthier, faster, cleaner and more abundant, but because they weaken fossil fuels where they are weakest: their intractable volatility and inefficiency,” she said.
Another key architect of the Paris agreement, Laurence Tubiana, said the agreement had proven resilient and would withstand any US withdrawal and that the global economic context had already changed. “There is powerful economic momentum behind the global transition, which the United States has led and benefited from, but now risks abandoning. »
But she noted that it would be up to the EU to step up action “to show that ambitious climate action protects people, strengthens economies and builds resilience”.
German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan said her country would work with the next US administration “where possible”. . . to address common security challenges, including the climate crisis.”
A European negotiator observed that the United States has always been a difficult partner in climate finance negotiations. “Biden also failed to deliver on his climate finance promises,” they said.
Scientists were pessimistic about the presidency’s likely impact on limiting global warming. “This will pause climate action for four years – can we afford it? The answer is no,” said Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute.
Additional reporting Amanda Chu
Climate capital
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