Season 2024: Eliminated on September 20 last in the AL East
Let’s take a look at the Toronto Blue Jays’ 2024 season, the questions the team needs to answer this winter, and the early outlook for 2025.
Learn more: 2024 MLB offseason previews: What’s next for the White Sox, A’s, Nats and more??
Things that went well
As everything around him fell apart, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had his best season since finishing second in 2021 American League MVP Voting. Vladdy didn’t dominate all season, as he had a .679 OPS at the end of April. But starting in May, the 25-year-old emerged as one of the best hitters in baseball.
Guerrero is a year away from free agency, and now he and management can head into the offseason confident that he can play at a level that warrants a significant, long-term commitment.
Things that went wrong
In short, anything but Guerrero. After three playoff appearances and four winning records in the previous four seasons, the Blue Jays fell below .500 on April 30 and have never returned to that mark.
Scoring has been a huge problem all season. Toronto ranked 24th in scoring at the All-Star break, and at that point, George Springer, Bo Bichette, Justin Turner, Daulton Varsho, Kevin Kiermaier and Alejandro Kirk all had OPS below .700. Bichette and Springer were by far the biggest disappointments, as they were expected to be exceptional offensive players but instead were relegated to the top of the lineup until the team was eliminated from playoff contention.
Things haven’t gotten any better on the pitching side, with Toronto dropping from fourth in earned run average last season to one of the worst marks in baseball this year. The bullpen has been a complete disaster, with Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson going from being mainstays in 2023 to injured and ineffective players this time around. The Jays’ veteran rotation deserves credit for continuing to take the ball every five days, but Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt have been significantly less effective, as has Yusei Kikuchi before he was traded to Houston at the trade deadline.
Off-season projects
The Blue Jays are entering a pivotal offseason that will likely involve significant roster changes. Signing Guerrero to a long-term contract will have to be a priority this winter, as losing him in a year would trigger a major rebuild that would not be well-received by fans. Guerrero is expected to be the team’s first baseman, even though he has played cornerback in the past.
The rest of the infield is uncertain, starting with Bichette’s status. Like Guerrero, Bichette is a year away from free agency. But after such a disappointing season, Bichette and the organization will have a hard time determining his long-term value. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him get a fresh start elsewhere, but calmer heads could prevail once 2024 fades into the background. Spencer Horwitz and Will Wagner, who arrived in the Kikuchi tradecould fill the second base position, with Horwitz likely entering the competition with a leg up. Ernie Clement and Addison Barger could compete for opportunities at cornerback, but Clement profiles as more of an all-purpose player, and Barger may not be ready for a full-time assignment.
Two-thirds of the outfield is ready. Varsho has regularly impressed fans with his leadoff catches and will play center field despite his status as mediocre offensive player. Springer will stick around in right field, and management will be keeping their fingers crossed that he can enjoy a bounce-back year at age 35. Left field is wide open, with Joey Loperfido and Davis Schneider as candidates. Loperfido arrived at the trade deadline and has been cut too many times to make an impact. Schneider has fizzled out after creating buzz late last season and early in 2024.
The Jays have more answers in the rotation than in the batting lineup, even assuming Gausman and Bassitt can bounce back in their mid-30s. Those two, along with José Berrios, Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez, will likely form the Opening Day rotation. Berrios has been the team’s most consistent starter in 2024, and Francis has had a slower season. memorable period of AugustRodriguez has been inconsistent but shown potential in his rookie year.
The Blue Jays will need to add depth to their bullpen, with Romano and Swanson entering the 2025 season as reserves. Chad Green reestablished himself as a late-inning reliever this season and will have a pivotal role to play moving forward. The rest of the group is largely comprised of fringe major league players.
Money will be a hot topic this winter. Toronto ranked ninth in 2024 payroll, and its best player needs a raise. The organization doesn’t have a strong pool of prospects to trade, but signing multiple veterans to big-ticket free-agent deals may not be an option. General manager Ross Atkins will have to get creative, which hasn’t been his strong suit in the past.
2024 MLB Playoff Tracker: Follow the Playoff Situation
Prospects on the horizon
The Blue Jays farm system has been a roller coaster this year. Orelvis Martinez suspended for 80 matches for doping And Tommy John surgery for Ricky Tiedemann deprived the organization of its top prospects. But a wave of trade deadline deals and the written by Trey Yesavage has helped this group regain some respectability. Still, there aren’t many interesting prospects who are about to make their MLB debuts.
Martinez played one game for Toronto before being suspended and will join the infield competition during spring training. He has undeniable power and his ability to consistently reach base will determine his readiness for the big leagues.
Jake Bloss made three starts for Houston before arriving in the Kikuchi trade and will be valuable to Toronto next year. If all goes well, Toronto’s five current starters will fill the Opening Day rotation spots, with Bloss waiting in Triple-A until an injury requires his arrival. The organization also lacks rotation options in the minor leagues.
Jonatan Clase could join the team at some point in 2025. He struggled in 41 at-bats with Seattle before arriving in the Yimi Garcia’s Businessand the jury is still out on his ability to take hits in the major leagues. But Clase has some skills in spades, including exceptional speed that serves him well on the basepaths and in the outfield.
Goals for 2025
Toronto could make the playoffs or finish last in the division next year, depending on what management does this offseason. As is the case most years, the American League East will be a juggernaut. The Yankees and Orioles are among the best teams in baseball, the Red Sox have turned a corner in their rebuild and the Rays are always dangerous.
Overall, this is a pivotal moment for the organization. Team president and general manager Mark Shapiro and Atkins have been running the Blue Jays since the end of the 2015 season, and they have yet to win a playoff series. It would be tough to convince fans to embrace another complete rebuild, but it may be necessary if key veterans like Springer, Gausman and Bassitt continue to decline.
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Focus on fantasy
Guerrero will be a first-round pick in head-to-head leagues in 2025 and a second-round pick in roto formats. Aside from a lack of steals, he offers everything a fantasy manager looks for in a first-round slugger. Bichette will take a significant dropoff in fantasy drafts, but he should still be considered in the top 100 picks based on his performance prior to 2024. Springer will be less coveted and fall to the bottom half of drafts.
Among the Blue Jays’ pitchers, Gausman and Berrios will be considered third starters in mixed leagues, with Francis an attractive late-round option. Romano’s value will fluctuate wildly, depending on how he looks in training camp.
