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The Caspian Sea is on track to reach its lowest level on record, an Azerbaijani official said, as climate change causes lasting damage to the world’s largest inland body of water.
The host country of the COP29 climate summit in Baku, in its main stadium just minutes from the Caspian Sea, has witnessed a record retreat of salt water over the nearly 30 years of its long geological history.
The decline in water levels is the most “obvious” since 1995, said Faig Mutallimov, head of the environmental policy division at Azerbaijan’s Ecology Ministry. “One of the main causes is climate change. »
By the end of this year, Mutallimov said water levels were expected to “reach or even exceed” the previous minimum reached in the late 1970s, when it fell to 29m below sea level after the construction of dams on the tributaries.
Other inland water bodies have also come under enormous pressure in recent years, including the Aral Sea, which has largely disappeared over a 50-year period.
The complete disappearance of the Caspian Sea is unlikely because of the depth of the middle and southern basins, said Rohit Samant, co-author of a study predicting its future decline.
But many towns and port cities could come under intense pressure and other areas, including around the shallower northern basin, could dry out.
Samant’s study, published last year in the journal Nature’s Communications Earth & Environment, predicted a drop in sea levels of between 8 and 14 m by the end of this century.
As global temperatures have risen due to climate change, sea evaporation has increased, while precipitation and wind patterns have changed, affecting water levels, he said. explain.
The average level of the Caspian Sea fell by about 30 cm in 2023 compared to the previous year, reaching a minimum of 28.99 m below sea level. It was assigned to low runoff from the vast Volga river system, which runs some 3,500 km across central and southern Russia, according to the Caspian Sea Hydrometeorology Coordination Committee.
In August, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev discussed what he called a “catastrophic” shrinking of the Caspian Sea with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as concerns grew over the economic and environmental impact of the withdrawal.
Mutallimov said a regional working group of government officials, scientists and other experts was established earlier this year to better understand falling water levels bordered by five countries – Russia, Azerbaijan , Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran – which affected coastal infrastructure. such as ports and oil platforms.
More than 90 percent of Azerbaijan’s total export earnings come from oil and gas, which contribute most to climate change when burned.
According to Mutallimov, as waters become shallower, it affects the “carrying capacity” of ships, forcing them to carry less cargo. Oil platforms had also become more difficult to reach and operate.
Falling water levels are also a “cause for concern” for those working in energy infrastructure, said Rick Fawn, senior lecturer in international relations at the University of St Andrews. “There is no agreement on the extent of the possible withdrawal. This is concerning because some infrastructure development could be affected.
Speaking at COP29, Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program, warned that the Caspian was “besieged by the triple planetary crisis: the climate change crisis, the nature crisis, the loss of land and biodiversity, and the pollution and waste crisis.” “.
It was also a human crisis, she said. “Such a decline would devastate ecosystems and species, threaten livelihoods and harm food security and stability in the region. »
The Caspian Sea is famous for its wild sturgeon, prized for its caviar, and is home to around 90% of the planet’s last remaining springs, as well as endemic Caspian seals.
Some attendees at an exclusive dinner for ministers, financiers and others at COP29 were shocked by the visible receding of the sea around Baku, according to those present. The dinner was held at a historically oceanfront home, which now overlooks mudflats, they said.
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