Season 2024: Eliminated on September 20 3rd in the NL Central
Let’s take a look at the St. Louis Cardinals’ 2024 season, the questions the team needs to answer this winter, and the early outlook for 2025.
Learn more: MLB 2024 Offseason Previews: What’s Next for the White Sox, Reds, A’s and More?
Things that went well
The 2024 Cardinals were average in run prevention and below average in run production, and few of their players stood out. But there were still some bright spots.
Ryan Helsley has battled Emmanuel Clase all season for the Major Leagues Lead in Saves. Helsley has been a great reliever for three straight years, and the key to his success in 2024 was overcoming a forearm strain in 2023 while maintaining velocity in his fastball and slider.
Sonny Gray was another bright spot, as he gave the team the workhorse they were looking for by signing him at a three-year, $75 million contract last season. He wasn’t among the best in baseball in ERA, but he led the Cards in many key pitching statistics.
On the offensive side, Willson Conteras and Alec Burleson were key contributors. Contreras dealt with two stints on the injured list but posted an OPS above .800. And Burleson took a big step forward in his third season, showing an improved ability to hit for average and power while becoming the team’s regular No. 2 hitter.
Things that went wrong
The team’s two mainstays, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, have seen notable declines. Arenado has reached base at a similar rate to 2023, but has provided less power. Goldschmidt’s decline has been more significant, and 2024 marked the second year in a row where he has taken a big step backward.
Nolan Gorman is less essential to the Cardinals than Goldschmidt or Arenado, but he has nonetheless let the team down. Gorman has never been a high-average hitter, but this year he has consistently struggled to keep his average above .200, and his power numbers have also taken a negative turn. optional for minors end of August.
St. Louis ranked near the bottom of the league in turnover ERA this season, with no starter performing better than expected. Veterans Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn all produced uninspiring numbers, and Erick Fedde failed to spark the team after arrival at the trade deadlineUnfortunately, the Cards got exactly what you’d expect from a rotation largely comprised of mediocre, aging players who eat up a lot of innings.
Off-season projects
This is a crucial offseason for an organization that is trying to reorganize rather than rebuild.
Most of the infielders are ready. Arenado has three years and $52 million left on his contract and will return as a third baseman. Masyn Winn came in as a formidable defender and a viable first baseman candidate at shortstop. Brendan Donovan could be the second baseman, unless Gorman shows in training camp that his swing is back on track, in which case Donovan could spend more time in the outfield. The team is well-positioned behind the plate with Contreras, and first base is wide open with Goldschmidt heading to free agency. Management could seek a first baseman on the free-agent market, or the Cards could turn to Burleson, who has played mostly in the outfield but has occasionally filled in for Goldschmidt.
2024 MLB Playoff Tracker: Follow the Playoff Situation
In the outfield, St. Louis has plenty of options but few certainties. Burleson could fill a role if he doesn’t move to first base. Lars Nootbaar is coming off a disappointing, injury-plagued season but should have a chance at a full-time role in a potential bounce-back year. Two former prospects, Jordan Walker and Victor Scott II, are trying to show they belong in the big leagues but have yet to make a real impact. Scott has looked overmatched so far at the plate, but he has plenty of upside, thanks to his superior speed on the paths and in center field. Michael Siani is another center field option who hasn’t hit well in 2024.
More than anything, the Cardinals need to add a starter. Gray gives them a hard-hitting arm, with Fedde and Mikolas also capable of filling rotational roles. Andre Pallante could be the fourth or fifth starter, and Steven Matz will try to earn a role after being plagued by injuries during his first three seasons with the team. four-year contract. Gibson and Lynn signed one-year deals, and the organization would be wise to aim higher in free agency this year. Whether president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch target an ace like Corbin Burnes or move down a level to someone like Luis Severino, this team needs a talented pitcher to pair with Gray at the top of the rotation.
Most of the Cardinals’ key relievers, including Helsley, are under contract through 2025. That said, the team will need to replace Andrew Kittredge, who was a trusted man and is headed to free agency.
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Prospects on the horizon
The bad news is that the Cardinals’ scouting system is average at best. The good news is that the team’s top prospects should make an impact for the club in 2025.
There are a few pitchers who could add youth to the rotation. Quinn Mathews is the most exciting of the bunch, as he moved up four levels this year after being selected in the 2023 MLB Draft. The left-hander has posted dominant numbers and should be considered for the 2025 Opening Day roster. Mathews is famous for throwing 156 pitches while pitching for Stanford in a College World Series game. Additionally, Tink Therefore has performed well throughout his four-year minor league career, albeit without throwing a large number of innings. He has mastered Double-A in 2024 and could make his debut next summer.
Thomas Saggese has arrived in the Jordan Montgomery Trade in the summer of 2023. He was much more effective offensively last year in Double-A than he was in Triple-A this season. With Gorman having failed as a second baseman and Donovan being able to play multiple positions, the door is open for Saggese to get a shot in the major leagues.
Finally, this organization will have to figure out what to do with Jimmy Crooks, who has produced excellent offensive numbers in Double-A this season and is also a good defender behind the plate. Crooks is blocked at the major league level by Contreras and Iván Herrera, which means he should spend most of next season in Triple-A.
Goals for 2025
With all due respect to the Brewers, the National League Central is wide open. Milwaukee deserves credit for winning the third division each of the last four seasons, but the Brewers don’t have a dynasty-like roster, and every other team in the division has the potential to post a winning record.
For the Cardinals to break out of this group next year, management will need to add top-tier talent to the roster. Young players like Mathews and Scott should help the team next season, but a few talented veterans — one in the rotation and one in the batting order — would really allow St. Louis to keep up with Milwaukee.
Focus on fantasy
Gray and Helsley will be the first Cardinals selected in 2025 fantasy drafts. Gray will be considered a No. 2 starter in mixed leagues, putting him in play in the Round 5 range. Helsley is projected to be selected in a similar round, depending on how much value a given league places on elite closers.
Contreras will be the team’s most attractive hitter, with Arenado also holding plenty of value as a boring but reliable mid-round pick. Winn and Burleson will be valuable in the back half of drafts, and Scott and Mathews could turn strong springs into popular sleepers in the late rounds.
