Roki Sasaki heading to MLBand there will be no shortage of speculation that he only has eyes for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The circumstantial evidence supports, but in no way proves, such a conclusion. The Dodgers seems to suit Sasaki for several reasonsfrom their experience in developing launch vehicles to their employment of two other Japanese phenomena of the past, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
If Sasaki wants to come to MLB and immediately compete for a World Series title while maintaining a connection to Japan and developing for lucrative free agency in six years, the Dodgers are probably the best bet. That doesn’t mean you should assume it’s a done deal, though, and it remains a decision that seems to be an important indicator of Sasaki’s intentions.
And it all comes down to the date December 1st.
Roki Sasaki’s MLB Release Process, Explained
When the Chiba Lotte Marines announced that they were sending Sasakithey left out one important detail: when they would officially release it. Instead, via Google Translate, they simply stated that they “decided to begin the process.”
This is important because of how the posting system works for players in Sasaki’s position. The bases span a 45-day period during which players can negotiate with each MLB team. If they fail to reach an agreement within this window, they return to their NPB team and may be reassigned again during the offseason.
As you may have heard, Sasaki coming to the MLB now instead of two years ago means he’s giving up the kind of nine-figure contract Yamamoto got last season. Instead, he’s basically an international free agent in MLB’s eyes, just like a teenager from the Dominican Republic. That means Sasaki will be tied to MLB teams’ relatively small international bonus pools, which peaked at just over $7 million this season. This also means Sasaki will be subject to the international free agency schedule.
International bonus pools are refreshed from year to year, with a dead period between December 15 and January 15. A team can use its pool to sign any player, but the remaining money disappears on December 15, along with each team’s bonuses. pool replenished a month later.
Now we should mention that the Dodgers are the MLB team with the most international bonuses remaining, at just over $2.5 million. For comparison, the San Diego Padres, another team that should be very interested in Sasaki, have $2,200 left.
So if they want to pursue Sasaki, all non-Dodgers MLB teams will want him available after January 15th, when the pools reset and the Dodgers’ money advantage disappears. And that means Sasaki would have to be assigned after Dec. 1, because his assignment window would then reach the period where he can sign in 2025.
Scenario A: Roki Sasaki is released before December 1st
There is little practical reason for Sasaki to do this, so it could be seen as a show of intent on the flamethrower’s part.
If Sasaki does that, that means he’s OK with only a few teams capable of offering him a seven-figure bonus, although any of those teams could offer him more money in 2025. And that would mean the Dodgers would have the most of the money available, which is usually true but really wasn’t supposed to be true in this situation.
This result would support the conclusion that Sasaki pushed to be assigned to the MLB with the Dodgers in mind as his destination. This would also support the idea that the Dodgers, a very smart team that takes every opportunity to leverage their wealth, set aside this money in their bonus pool specifically for Sasaki, whether or not they made back-channels with him.
Scenario B: Roki Sasaki is released after December 1
This is the world in which every other MLB team would have a better chance, but the Dodgers would probably still be the favorite. Other teams may not be able to offer as much money now, but they can promise Sasaki that more money will arrive in a month and a half.
This would also be what the Marines would want to do by getting some of Sasaki’s money.
Make no mistake, there are likely MLB teams that would be willing to commit their entire international bonuses to Sasaki, meaning he could go from a $2.5 million bonus to a $7 million bonus pending after Dec. 1. I’m also talking about a player who just cost himself a nine-figure salary by being posted this offseason in the first place.
It seems clear that Sasaki is not financially motivated, or at least does not need MLB’s money ASAP to be filthy rich. He’s already a star in his own country, with all the sponsorship deals that come with it. That income should increase if Sasaki becomes another NPB star in the MLB, regardless of which team he plays for.
This is why the question of bonus money is important, but it is also a bit silly to treat this level of money as a deciding factor. We are trying to track the actions of someone who is acting irrationally from a financial perspective.
Sasaki’s choice should instead come down to what the MLB team can sell him and how much the club can help him over the next six years. That could mean the Dodgers. It could also mean any number of teams.
But if it’s the Dodgers…
This could be what’s driving 29 MLB teams and every NPB team to change the posting system.
We can say it clearly. An NPB superstar pushing his team to post him so he can join the mega-rich reigning World Series champion to compete alongside two other Japanese superstars, to the detriment of his own financial well-being and that of his team, would be bad for the NPB and the MLB. .
This posting system was specifically put in place to incentivize Japanese players to stay in Japan for some of their best moments before seeking their riches in MLB. It worked with Yamamoto, who won three straight Triple Crowns and MVP for the Orix Buffaloes before landing a $325 million contract for the Dodgers.
This is vitally important to NPB teams, both from the perspective of keeping big-name players as long as possible in order to maintain fan interest and because posting fees are a major financial boon for the teams. The Buffaloes, who had a payroll in the range of $20 million in 2023, received more than $50 million by releasing Yamamoto. The Marines will now receive only 20% of Sasaki’s contract money. That would mean $500,000 if Sasaki got that $2.5 million.
On the MLB side, teams would only be upset because they didn’t at least have a chance to lure Sasaki financially.
It’s a situation not unlike Nick Saban’s recruiting for Alabama in the pre-NIL era. Because college football teams couldn’t offer five-star recruits what they would get on an open market, these players often sought out programs that could provide the best chance to compete for a championship and the riches of the NFL, which which often meant Alabama.
It’s hard to say how the system, agreed to jointly by MLB and NPB, would change, but several teams frustrated by the Dodgers and Sasaki could be very motivating.
