I was asked to join a US government-led group called the Political Instability Task Force in 2017, after a nearly 30-year career thinking and writing about political violence. One of the task force’s goals was to come up with a model to help the government predict which countries around the world would be likely to experience political instability and violence over the next two years.
It turns out that two factors were highly predictive. The first was whether a country’s government was an anocracy. These types of governments are also called partial or weak democracies, illiberal democracies, electoral autocracies, or hybrid regimes, meaning they have a combination of democratic and authoritarian elements.
The second factor was whether voters in these anocracies formed political parties around race, religion, or ethnicity, rather than ideology. So, rather than joining a party because you are conservative or liberal, you join a party because you are black or white, Christian or Muslim, Serbian or Croatian.
If a country exhibited both of these characteristics, the task force considered it to be at high risk of political instability and/or violence over the next two years and placed it on a watch list.
Based on this model, where does the United States stand?
Democracy in the United States has weakened since 2016. It has been degraded on Center for Systemic Peace Democracy Scale for the first time that year, after international election observers deemed our 2016 elections free but not entirely fair. Its rating was subsequently downgraded twice, most recently in late 2020, after a sitting president refused to accept the outcome of an election and actively attempted to overturn the results, for the first time in history. history of the United States. As of December 2020, American democracy was officially considered an anocracy under the task force’s definition.
The two major parties in the United States are also increasingly divided on the basis of race and religion. Today, African Americans, Latinos, Jews, Muslims, and atheists overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic Party, while whites and evangelical Christians mostly vote for the Republican Party. Based on the task force model, in late 2020 the United States moved dangerously close to both of these characteristics putting it at high risk of political violence. A few weeks later, the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol took place.
The United States’ democracy score has improved slightly since then, but only because former President Trump voluntarily left office and was replaced by an administration committed to democracy and the rule of law . Our political institutions and democratic safeguards remain as fragile – if not more so – than they were on January 6, 2021. Now, the fate of our democracy depends heavily on who occupies the White House, which is a deeply concerning reality.
People ask me if there will be violence again after this year’s election, especially if Trump loses. If Trump loses, violence will almost certainly occur, and that’s because the United States has all the conditions that make electoral violence likely: winner-take-all elections, deeply divided parties that distrust each other, and a party that has been groomed to believe the election must have been stolen if they lose.
In this scenario, violence could begin with protests against the election results and quickly escalate into riots. Far-right militias could join in, first targeting those they consider traitors within their own party. They would likely extend their attacks to Democratic Party leaders, election officials, law enforcement and anyone enforcing the law. Minority groups living in swing states and blue cities within red states would be at high risk, including Jewish residents in suburban Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, African Americans in places like Detroit, and Latinos in Tucson.
If Trump wins, the immediate consequences will likely be less violent. Democrats were not prepared to view Kamala Harris’ defeat as evidence of cheating, nor encouraged to resort to violence if Trump prevailed. In addition, the left has far fewer militias ready to take up arms. However, violence from the left is likely to grow if Trump consolidates his power and overturns future elections or rigs the system to ensure he cannot lose again.
In the long term, a Trump victory risks triggering more violence for two main reasons. First, history shows that groups permanently excluded from political power are most likely to rise up against the government. Asset told people they wouldn’t have to vote anymore if he wins. If he followed through on this move and the Republican Party maintained the power of white voters even after whites became a minority of the electorate, many groups would become increasingly unhappy with their lack of representation, a recipe for violence. Second, violence often erupts when peaceful protests are met with harsh government crackdown – and Trump has signaled a willingness to use military force against Americans who demonstrate.
What can we do, as individuals, to prevent or contain violence? If Trump is defeated, the weeks and months that follow will likely see angry extremists and would-be autocrats lash out, spreading fear and warning of impending disaster. They will attempt to create chaos, aiming to make average Americans panic over threats, bomb threats, and even assassination attempts. Their goal will be to intimidate us and convince us that only strong men can restore order.
Our job is not to panic. We will need to be firm and resilient in the face of these intimidation strategies, so as not to allow fear and violence to tear us apart during what I believe will be a temporary and manageable storm.
If Trump wins and takes steps to dismantle institutions, we will have to become more active. First, we will have to fight with all legal means at our disposal and prepare for peaceful resistance. Most Americans have no experience with sustained protests and will need to learn what works, what doesn’t, and how to use their voices to regain their political power.
As we finally bring a tumultuous election campaign to a close, it’s important for Americans to know that peaceful protests can be a powerful tool for taking down autocrats — but only if citizens are willing to act when the moment demands it.
Barbara F. Walter is professor of international relations at UC San Diego and author of “How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop.”
