Article first published: Wednesday, November 6, 2024, 4 a.m. ET
Article last updated: Wednesday, November 6, 2024, 1 p.m. ET
The National Hurricane Center’s advisory at 1 p.m. Wednesday said Category 3 Hurricane Rafael was 40 miles northeast of the Isle of Youth and 85 miles south of Havana, Cuba, with a maximum sustained wind of 185 mph. It is moving at 22 km/h towards the northwest.
“…Rafael is expected to make landfall west of Cuba this afternoon. Rafael is expected to move toward the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening. Additional strengthening is likely before Rafael makes landfall in Cuba this afternoon -noon.” according to analysts. “Rafael is expected to weaken due to Cuba, but is expected to emerge in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane.”
There were several developments today: Rafael strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane. It was later upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 185 km/h.
YESTERDAY (Tuesday):
Yesterday, Rafael strengthened first into a hurricane and then into a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 185 mph. Forecasters have issued a tropical storm warning for the Florida Keys.
CHANGES WITH THIS NOTICE:
The Cuban government has ended the tropical storm warning for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A hurricane warning is in effect for:
– Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Island of Youth
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
– Cuban provinces of Villa Clara and Cienfuegos
– Lower and Middle Florida Keys, from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge
– Dried tortugas
A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in the warning areas.
A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your region in the United States,
RISKS AFFECTING LAND:
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth until late evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected across parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Islands today and tonight.
PRECIPITATION: Heavy rain will affect parts of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly the Cayman Islands to western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected in parts of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals of up to 12 inches expected in areas of higher terrain. This will result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. In the Cayman Islands, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.
For a complete depiction of expected precipitation associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service’s Storm Precipitation Totals graph, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml? Rainqpf
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of outflow winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the area of hurricane warning, including the Isle of Youth.
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas close to the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the coastline. Water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the maximum flood occurs at the time of high tide…
Dry tortugas…1-3 feet Lower Florida Keys…1-2 feet
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening across the Florida Keys and extreme southwest mainland Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean over the next few days and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week and into weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Source: National Hurricane Center
This article was generated by the Miami Herald Bot, an artificial intelligence software that analyzes information from the National Hurricane Center and applies it to models created by journalists in the newsroom. We’re experimenting with this and other new ways to provide more useful content to our readers and subscribers. You can report errors or bugs to mcclatchybot@mcclatchy.com. Complete hurricane coverage at miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/
