Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki will be released, and every MLB team will want him

Roki Sasaki officially arrives in MLB.

The Chiba Lotte Marines announced Saturday in Japan that they will be sending the flamethrower phenom to the United States, where he is now emerging as one of the biggest names of the offseason. It’s unclear when the process will officially begin, but MLB teams will have 45 days to woo Sasaki after it’s released.

The Marines included comments from their general manager, manager and Sasaki himself, 23, in the announcement. Sasaki’s comment on his long-standing interest in playing in MLB, as translated by Yakyu Cosmopolitan on X:

In four seasons with the Marines, Sasaki posted a career 2.02 ERA with 524 strikeouts in 414 2/3 innings over four seasons.

Roki Sasaki’s move to MLB is a financially curious move

This move was widely speculated but not necessarily expected, for one major reason. Because he is under 25, Sasaki will not be able to negotiate a high contract with MLB like his compatriot Yoshinobu Yamamoto did to the tune of $325 million last offseason.

Instead, Sasaki will only be able to negotiate a signing bonus from MLB teams’ international bonus pools, which reached just over $7 million this year. After signing, his status will be similar to that of any other prospect, going through six years of pre-trial and arbitration salaries before he can enter free agency. It’s the same process Shohei Ohtani went through when he came to MLB ahead of the 2018 season, and Sasaki can only hope it ends with his own nine-figure salary.

The biggest question is why the Marines would post Sasaki. NPB teams receive a portion of the money one of their position players receives in MLB. If Sasaki had been assigned two years from now, when he was 25, the Marines could have received a figure similar to the $50.625 million the Orix Buffaloes landed thanks to Yamamoto’s assignment. Instead, they will receive a pittance.

Japanese baseball observers have speculated that Sasaki may have struck some sort of side deal to force the Marines to post him, which could set a dangerous precedent for MLB teams. Whether this is true or not, the day many MLB teams have been waiting for is finally here.

You can read more about Sasaki’s situation ahead of publication here.

Who are Roki Sasaki’s favorites?

Sasaki’s release will see a similar process to Ohtani’s, where every MLB team tries to offer him money as a relatively minor factor. Instead, Sasaki will likely choose his team based on what they can offer him from a development and comfort standpoint.

It should be a competitive process, but it has been repeatedly said that one team would have a leg up on Sasaki if he were ever assigned: the Los Angeles Dodgers. Here is a list of advantages the reigning champions have in their quest for a promising young Japanese player:

• There is $2.5 million left in their international bonus pool for 2024, the most of any MLB team

• two of Sasaki Samurai Japan’s teammates in Ohtani and Yamamoto

• a record of 12 consecutive playoff berths and the most recent World Series title

• a reputation for superior development and game planning with pitchers

• a time zone favorable to the Japanese public

• the largest audience of any team in Japan thanks to Ohtani’s undiminished fame and past successes with pioneer Hideo Nomo

• largest Japanese population in the continental United States

Other MLB teams have Japanese players and/or the promise of competitiveness, but it’s hard to see one with a more natural fit. Then again, Sasaki might not be interested in playing in the shadow of Ohtani and Yamamoto, or might have plenty of reasons to choose another team.

The decision will ultimately come from Sasaki himself. So don’t go photoshopping him into a Dodgers uniform just yet.

Why is Roki Sasaki so excited?

There’s no starting pitcher in the world who throws as hard as Sasaki, and that’s only part of his appeal.

Sasaki is a pitcher who can not only hit, but also sit above 100 when fully healthy. Baseball fans in the United States got to see him when he showed up at the 2023 World Baseball Classic and threw 26 of 29 pitches at speeds greater than 100 mph.

This is elite terrain for Sasaki. The other is one of the meanest splitters in the world. These are the two pitches Sasaki used in the game where many American fans first heard his name: a perfect 19 strikeout game in 2022.

Sasaki has also worked on his slider this year with encouraging results, and any MLB team that signs him will likely want him to continue working on developing additional deals.

Despite his international elite qualities, there is a very good chance that Sasaki will need some time before becoming the ace, so many highlights are promising. Yamamoto was a much more refined pitcher when he was assigned, and Sasaki has had issues this year with arm discomfort, causing him to miss a few starts and a decrease in velocity. His 2.35 ERA in 2024 was the worst of his career.

But don’t be fooled. The MLB offseason just saw a huge domino fall, and another one will come once Sasaki makes his choice.