With approximately six weeks left During this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, we have already experienced several historic storms, starkly illustrating that by warming the planet, we have also made it more dangerous.
Beryl became a category 5 hurricane in July, the first hurricane of the calendar year recorded in the Atlantic to reach this magnitude; Helene caused catastrophic flooding and damage from Florida to western North Carolina; Kirk crossed the Atlantic to bring devastating rains and winds. France; Milton— one of the fastest intensifying storms on record – caused damage throughout Florida; And Oscar surprised the forecasters this weekend quickly turning into a hurricane and spill torrential rains in the Caribbean. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has made it clear that the consequences of climate change are here.
This hurricane season has also amplified another worrying trend: misinformation about catastrophic extreme weather events. For example, social media users have falsely declared that hurricanes Helen and Milton were created or directed by human technology. Such lies generate distrust and anger, too often intended for meteorologists who work to save lives by providing accurate scientific forecasts warning people in danger to evacuate.
Technology capable of creating or directing hurricanes does not exist outside of science fiction, or perhaps the lairs of cartoon villains. Humans shape extreme weather in another way: When we burn fossil fuels such as oil and gas, we release greenhouse gases that trap heat and act unnaturally like a blanket. warm our planet. Scientists know that this human-caused warming is the real reason hurricanes like Helene and Milton have become more dangerous.
This is where we need to focus our conversation: understanding how climate change is making these extremes more dangerous, learning what we can do to limit warming, and identifying ways to solve this man-made crisis.
Climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous in several ways. For example, as we warm the planet, sea levels rise because glaciers and ice caps melt and water expands at warmer temperatures. This raised typical coastal water levels and provides a head start for flooding caused by storm surgesas was the case along The coasts of Florida with Hélène and Milton. Due to rising sea levels, these floods are becoming more damaging than it would have been in the past.
A warmer planet also increases the risk of extreme precipitation from hurricanes. A warmer atmosphere can retain more moisture, which can in turn intensify both the rate and quantity of precipitation. As we saw with Hurricane Helenethe resulting moisture can be not only damaging, but deadly.
A warmer planet also means warmer oceans which actually provide fuel for hurricanes, allowing them to reach greater advantages more quickly than would otherwise have been possible. Mine research shows that, compared to 50 years ago, today’s storms are two to three times more likely to progress from Category 1 or less to a major hurricane (i.e. Category 3 or more) within 12 to 24 hours.
We’ve seen this play out in real time this year. Beryl, Helene and Milton all grew from weak hurricanes to major hurricanes within 12 hours as they traveled over unusually warm ocean waters. Hurricane Milton strengthened particularly quicklyintensifying at rates over a 12-hour and 24-hour window that are above the 99th percentile relative to Atlantic hurricanes recorded from 1851 to 2023.
The bad news is that we are making hurricanes worse. But the good news is that since we created this problem, we can also solve it. Generating fantastical lies about weather manipulation technology will not prevent these growing coastal risks, just as threatening meteorologists will not make these storms less damaging. Current solutions include developing better coastal defenses and emergency action plans, as well as eliminating the use of fossil fuels in our economies.
A recent United Nations Development Program survey shows that this is precisely what people around the world, including the United States, want. According to the study, two thirds of Americans — and 80% of the world’s population — think schools should teach more about climate change and its impacts. Two-thirds of Americans also want our country to strengthen its commitments to combating climate change, and more than half agree that we should quickly replace fossil fuels with renewable energy. A large majority of Americans (80%) believe we should work with other countries to combat climate change, even if we disagree with them on other issues.
Even as extreme weather has become more common, so has the desire for meaningful climate action, which is the only viable option to support our coastal communities. The task is difficult but not impossible. By understanding the impacts of climate change, sharing this information with each other, and voting for leaders who will invest in effective solutions, we can secure a better future and prevent misinformation from defining our new reality.
Andra Garner is an associate professor and climatologist in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rowan University in New Jersey.
