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Armenia’s relations with Russia are undoubtedly complex. Yet Armenia’s position during the invasion of Ukraine illustrates the difficult decisions small countries face when caught between big powers, writes Vlad Olteanu.
Armenia has always occupied a difficult geopolitical position, sandwiched between the opposing goals of the West and Russia.
With the start of Moscow’s war in Ukraine, Armenia’s role has shifted to one that exploits its unique relationship with Russia, raising questions about the nation’s use of its position to deal with Western sanctions and support its economy.
Although not a direct participant in the conflict, Armenia’s economic ties with Russia have become a focal point of criticism, particularly regarding the re-export of raw materials and the facilitation of trade between Russian entities. sanctioned and the international market.
Economic relations between Armenia and Russia are thriving, particularly following Western sanctions against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine.
Russia reported strong growth in trade between the two countries, noting that it reached $7.4 billion last year and increased 2.5 times in the first half of this year, surpassing 8, 3 billion dollars. It is estimated that trade volume could reach $14-16 billion by the end of this year if the current pace continues.
This rapid expansion could be interpreted as Armenia taking advantage of its status as a re-export hub, allowing Russia to circumvent Western sanctions imposed due to the invasion of Ukraine.
Thus, Armenia is probably actively engaged in the re-export of Russian precious stones and gold. In 2023, Armenia exported 4.5 million carats of diamonds, 30 times more than the national production itself.
Not a passive observer
Armenia’s elevation to a leading role in the geopolitical sphere has indirectly strengthened Russia’s economic resilience in the face of sanctions. As Armenia focuses on advancing its own national interests, this dynamic raises concerns that it could undermine global efforts to isolate Russia.
By allowing re-exports and maintaining strong trade relations, Armenia helps mitigate the impact of sanctions, allowing Russia to continue access to restricted goods and technologies.
Armenia’s close ties with Russia have not gone unnoticed, although the Western response has remained relatively muted. Behind the scenes, well-organized lobbying efforts, likely led by influential elites and supported by large public relations and communications firms, appear to play an important role.
This successful lobbying campaign highlights a larger problem: Armenia’s ability to maintain crucial relations with the West and Russia, by manipulating Western perspectives on its economic interactions with Russia.
As a result, it is becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish whether Armenia’s diplomatic efforts are truly sincere or opportunistic maneuvers intended to take advantage of global instability, particularly in the context of the conflict. Ukrainian.
Armenian politicians, notably Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, have sought to distance Yerevan from Russia following the war in Ukraine.
However, the country’s close economic ties reveal a more complex reality. Armenia’s economic expansion, driven by trade with Russia, appears to be indirectly subsidized by the war.
Critics say Armenia is not just a passive observer but an active player in a network supporting Russia’s war efforts. By leveraging its territory and economy to circumvent sanctions, Armenia has strengthened its economy while arguably undermining global stability.
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Armenia has traditionally depended on Russia for security and economic support, particularly due to ongoing tensions with Azerbaijan. However, relations between the two nations have deteriorated in recent years.
The 2018 Armenian revolution, which brought Pashinyan to power, marked a significant shift as Armenia began to move away from Moscow’s influence.
This tension was further amplified by the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and the September 2022 clashes with Azerbaijan, where Russia, despite being a nominal mediator, hesitated to intervene decisively in favor of the ‘Armenia.
Russia’s focus on invading Ukraine has left Armenia feeling increasingly isolated.
ADVERTISEMENTThe lightning-fast 2023 Azerbaijani military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh and the subsequent exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh only deepened Armenia’s disillusionment with Russia. Moscow has been criticized for its failure to prevent Azerbaijan’s actions.
Armenia’s relations with Russia are undoubtedly complex. Yet Armenia’s position during the invasion of Ukraine illustrates the difficult decisions that small countries face when caught between big powers.
As the war progresses, Armenia will come under closer scrutiny, particularly as the international community assesses the implications of maintaining its economic ties with the Russian Federation.
Vlad Olteanu is the founder of i3pact EU and an expert on European affairs.
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