A century of impromptu polls held at the iconic Harry’s Bar in Paris have accurately called almost every American election. This November was no different. The counts displayed on the bar window, on a freezing Wednesday morning, once again recall the decisive victory of Donald Trump, with uncertain consequences for France and Europe.
Even as some French people celebrate the former president’s return to the White House, others fear its repercussions and wonder whether their country will follow the same rightward shift in its own 2027 presidential elections.
“I guess we’re disappointed but unfortunately not surprised,” said independent producer and Paris resident Charlotte Danglegan. “The fascist powers are becoming more and more important, and it’s the same thing in France.”
Not everyone sees it that way. On the social media platform
David Gil, a member of the far-right National Rally party, is also satisfied.
“For us, this is good news,” he said. “But it’s a little early to see what this means for France.”
French President Emmanuel Macron was one of the first to congratulate Trump, sending him his wishes to work “for more peace and prosperity”, before the Republican’s victory was officially confirmed.
But Macron followed this message with another on X, declaring that he and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wanted to work “for a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe in this new context”.
French government officials echoed similar themes, reflecting Macron’s long-standing desire to strengthen Europe’s military and other defenses.
“We need to find ways to work on our common interests, but fundamentally the answer is up to us,” European Affairs Minister Benjamin Haddad told France Inter radio.
Europeans, he declared, “cannot accept that their security will be decided without them, that tomorrow a capitulation will be imposed on the Ukrainians without them, without the Europeans.”
Cooling relationships
Macron established initially cordial relations with Trump during his first term, marked by the US president’s visit to Paris in 2017 during Bastille Day celebrations. But ties have cooled over differences over trade, climate change and Iran. There are now other areas of disagreement, including over the future of Ukraine and support for NATO.
“It’s really time for us to wake up and do something,” said Jean-Yves Camus, an analyst at the Jean Jaurès Foundation in Paris. “Because if we don’t have the military capacity to put pressure on Ukraine and the Middle East, then we depend on what Washington will do. »
For their part, French companies are concerned about the potential impact of the customs tariffs promised by Trump on imports, which could affect sectors such as beverages and aeronautics. Yet, according to observers, France is less exposed to a potential trade war than other countries, including neighboring Germany.
Walking near Harry’s Bar, phone salesman Cameron Orilia said he hadn’t been following the U.S. presidential campaign closely.
“I hope things get better for business” during Trump’s term, he said, “and that customs gets better.” I’m just looking at the economic side of politics.
A wake-up call?
But other Parisians are worried about the political side.
“I’m a little scared,” said Lucy Bone, a Briton who has lived in Paris for 25 years. “I think about what happened to all our democracies? We will now live in a world ruled by dictators.”
Like Americans, the French worry about high prices and immigration – themes that propelled Trump to victory. The far-right National Rally emerged victorious in France’s European and legislative elections this year. Today, it holds the largest number of seats in the lower house, but not the majority.
Some believe Trump’s election could set a precedent and prompt National Rally leader Marine Le Pen to do the same in 2027. Still, Le Pen has been cautious in her response to four more years under Trump, who remains very controversial in France.
“The only thing I think about is the interest of France and the interest of Europe,” she told reporters on Wednesday. Under a Trump presidency that defends American interests, “Europe must wake up” and do the same.
“Le Pen was very, very strong in saying that the deputies of the National Rally should not support President Trump, should not take sides in this election,” Camus said, “lest the bad image of President Trump harms his own chances. to become president.
