Each week during the 2023-24 NBA season, we’ll dig deeper into some of the league’s biggest storylines to try to determine whether the trends are based more on fact or fiction.
(Last week: Joel Embiid and the 76ers expect a painfully long season)
Fiction or reality: under the rise of Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers are contenders again
We heard the LeBron James story”supercomputer” brain. It knows what you are going to do before you do it, or so goes the story. Except, it seems, when you’re Evan Mobley, armed with a new arsenal of moves.
Early in the final quarter of Wednesday’s game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell grabbed a rebound, quickly finding Mobley in transition. James drew the defensive mission, backing away casually, as if he hadn’t anticipated his opponent’s next move. Sure enough, as Mobley did repeatedly to start the season, he steamrolled to the rim, scoring early in the shot clock.
It was the epitome of everything new head coach Kenny Atkinson preached to begin his tenure — everything the Cavs did to become the only undefeated one in the Eastern Conference.
Play with pace and attack the rim, especially if you’re Mobley, a 23-year-old Defensive Player of the Year finalist who is only now, in his fourth season, beginning to display the wide range of his offensive skills.
Cleveland’s 101.7 possessions per game reflect the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA, and its 59.6 drives per game are third in the league. The Cavs ranked 24th and 17th in those respective categories last season. Their number of field goals attempted in the first third of a shot clock has also skyrocketed.
Mobley was the biggest benefactor. The faster pace provides more opportunities for everyone, and Mobley uses a quarter of his team’s possessions when he’s on the field, up from 20 percent last season. His drives have doubled to nine per game, and he’s creating his own offense more than ever.
Tristan Thompson made it simple, via Fred Katz of The Athletic: “More of a “fuck you” attitude this year“.
About 70% of Atkinson’s job interview focused on: “How are we going to use Evan? How are we going to develop his game?” he told ESPN’s Chris Herring. The results are there, at least through five games, and they are spectacular. Cleveland’s 123.4 points per 100 possessions lead the league – and would represent the best offensive rating in league history if the Cavs could maintain that level of efficiency for a full year.
They can’t. Or not. The Boston Celtics recorded the highest field goal percentage (57.8%) in history last season. The Cavs have an effective field goal percentage of 62.4%. The difference between them and the current runner-up (57.5%) is equal to the difference between the second and 18th ranked teams.
Asked if he expected the offense to die down so quickly, Atkinson conceded: “Honestly, I’m a little surprised“.
This will regress, hopefully not to last season’s level, where they ranked middle of the pack. They won’t continue to score 25.2 points per game off turnovers – the highest number since NBA.com Database.
But the basic principle – shooting and getting up early, even if they’re unassisted – is what’s important. They probably can’t continue to convert 40% of their 13 pull-up 3s per game as a team. Then again, the Celtics attempt almost twice as many per game, and while they don’t convert them at the same rate, the end result is the same: an elite offense that maximizes its considerable talent.
It hasn’t been easy in Cleveland, where Mobley and Jarrett Allen have tight spacing for Mitchell and Darius Garland. At least put the ball in Mobley’s hands more often – do”what Giannis (Antetokounmpo) does“, as Atkinson said – force Mitchell And Garland off the ball, redirecting space within the offense. Sticking Allen in a corner helps too. Even if his shooting doesn’t attract the defense, Allen’s athleticism — cutting quickly and putting pressure on the rim if he’s missed — commands respect.
The final piece of this puzzle is Mobley’s 3-point shot. He is shooting 50% on 1.6 3-point attempts per game. The league hasn’t really caught up. (He shot 28.6% on 3.3 attempts per 36 minutes in the preseason.) Convert even the league average from distance to higher volume, and defenses won’t be able to ignore Mobley at outside, generating even more space, with or without the ball.
That he’s already one of the most efficient players in the NBA is one heck of an opening statement.
It will become more difficult. Defenses will build walls to prevent Mobley from penetrating the paint, like they do against Antetokounmpo, and playing from that point on takes practice. If Mobley could shoot over the wall, what a ride that would be. The more pressure he exerts, the more opportunities he will have to find Mitchell, Garland and whichever wing wins the job. They’re all ready to shoot at will in Atkinson’s system, or attack on the fence, sending the defense into a rotation that can’t contain Cleveland’s talent.
Will the Cavs continue to outscore their opponents by 20 points per 100 significant possessions when Allen and Mobley share the floor? Probably not, considering they mostly played opponents even in dual formations last season. But can they replicate their +8.6 net rating from two seasons ago, when Cleveland had the best point differential in the league? This seems feasible, given their improved offensive base.
Because the defense is still there. The Cavaliers have ranked at least seventh in that regard in the three seasons since they paired Allen and Mobley. They are ranked fourth through five games this year, allowing 105.7 points per 100 possessions – a standard that would have led the league last season.
The question is whether they can find some level of consistency in this red-hot offensive start. Their first three wins came against Toronto, Detroit and Washington – a trio of projected lottery teams.
“It’s a new system, so we’re learning new things, but now are we ready to continue doing the different things who allowed us to succeed… when it’s not that easy?” Mitchell asked, according to Cleveland.com.
Wins against the Knicks and Lakers reinforced that this was no fluke — that their connectivity can prevent collapsing against more formidable foes. As Atkinson told reporters and Mitchell reiterated: “When you’re connected and talented, you can do big things in this league.”
Consistency is key, especially for Mobley, who won’t turn 24 until June, when he hopes his team is still playing. There is no overnight rise to stardom. But the Cavs win every 100 possessions by 32.7 points when Mobley is at center, and stay connected is easier than get connected.
So when Mobley walked past James, perhaps it was more than a manifestation of everything Atkinson preached. Earlier in the game, Cleveland paid tribute to James’ contribution to the city’s championship, to which Mitchell said: “You want to be next. “Maybe Mobley had a claim to that throne.
Determination: Do. Under the rise of Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers are contenders once again.
