Control of the US Congress is at stake in Tuesday’s vote, the outcome of which will likely play a key role in the fate of legislative proposals put forward by whoever wins the presidency, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or former Republican President Donald Trump.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs in elections across the United States for new two-year terms, while 34 of the Senate’s 100 seats are up for new six-year terms.
Democrats now narrowly control the Senate and Republicans the House, but the majorities in both chambers could change or even stay the same, election analysts predict. Regardless, political party control of both chambers will likely remain narrow, regardless of the outcome.
Republicans have a good chance of regaining control of the Senate, where Democrats hold a 51-49 majority. One seat, in West Virginia, is seen as likely to go to Republicans, giving the party the chance to take control if he manages to win an additional seat against the Democrats. A handful of outgoing Democratic senators face strong Republican opposition, engaged in tight fights for re-election.
In total, 23 of the 34 senatorial seats at stake are held by Democrats or independents who are part of the party.
Analysts say control of the Senate hinges on seven particularly competitive elections, while the outcome of fewer than 40 of the 435 House elections is uncertain, leaving each party with about 200 seats within its likely control. Republicans currently hold a 220-212 lead, with three seats open.
Political surveys throughout the election campaign showed that voters, just as during the Harris-Trump White House race, were evenly divided on their policy preference for control of Congress.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll from October found that 43% of registered voters would support the Republican candidate for the House of Representatives in their district, while 43% would support the Democratic candidate.
Close fights in the heavily Democratic states of New York and California could determine control of the House, with Democrats trying to win back a handful of seats they unexpectedly lost in the 2022 elections.
Control of the House may not be known for several days, as California has often taken days to count ballots, and recounts and runoffs in close races can take weeks to resolve.
