Trump will likely attempt to mend relations with Kim during his second term.
This creates a situation in which the United States favors a dictatorship over a conventional ally in its foreign policy. This would be a more remarkable change than the upcoming abandonment of Ukraine, which is not a formal ally of the United States.
Trump has also long demanded that U.S. allies pay for U.S. security guarantees. He has been particularly extreme towards South Korea. Last month, he described South Korea as a “money-making machine,” saying he wanted to increase the cost of stationing U.S. troops in South Korea ninefold.
Where NATO allies can collectively tackle Trump’s demands, South Korea’s position is much tougher. It is isolated in Northeast Asia. It faces three nuclear autocracies on its doorstep, and its relations with Japan are poor (due to historical grievances dating back to Japanese imperialism during World War II). She will be the only one to oppose Trump if he acts as he did during his last presidency.
This could easily cause an alliance crisis. South Korea’s pro-alliance conservatives may be willing to accede to Trump’s huge financial demand to avoid fallout from the alliance. But the public backlash would be intense, and the South Korean left, currently in opposition, would use it to criticize the government, calling it weak and cowardly. The popularity rating of the current conservative president of South Korea, Yoon Suk Yeolis at an all-time low of just 19 percent, meaning he probably doesn’t have the public support to appease Trump.
